Injuries Take Spring Out Of Spring Training Step
Yes, you can have too much of a good thing. And that’s a problem for the Blue Jays right now, because they have too much outfield talent. This, in itself isn’t a big problem as baseball things go, but it is when one considers the over-riding problem with the club this season, namely that they appear perilously short on major league pitching. So it’s time to try and correct both those, or at least improve upon them, in one fell swoop.
This week’s news hasn’t been good for Toronto. Lefty Robbie Ray, looking quite encouraging so far this spring, fell over carrying his little boy at home. The lad is fine but Ray’s hurt his elbow. They remain confident he’ll only miss one start and be good to go for the opening series, but elbow problems, no matter how minor, can often lead to major trouble for starters. Nate Pearson remains out with a groin problem, which sounds painful but probably not enough to put him more than a couple of weeks behind in schedule – which could be a good thing, since as we’ve mentioned here before, it’s a stretch to expect a kid who’s pitched so little over the past three years to shoulder a heavy workload for an entire season. But worst of all, free agent signee Kirby Yates is gone for Tommy John surgery after just two appearances. There goes the erstwhile closer that was brought in to replace similarly-injured Ken Giles. Suddenly the pitching staff, which already seemed a bit thin on “locks” seems downright waif-like.
The outfield news wasn’t good either, with the big prize of the off-season, George Springer having an oblique injury. Although it’s not said to be serious, one might well imagine the big guy missing the first week of the season at least. Luckily, they are still well-equipped for the outfield with Lourdes Gurriel, Randal Grichuk and Teoscar Hernandez all quality major leaguers ready to go and Jonathan Davis a minor leaguer always doing his best to show he’s MLB-ready. That amount of depth is a good thing… but an unncessary luxury when other parts of the roster (ie – pitching, particularly starting) is so iffy. So, Mr. Atkins, it’s time for you to pick up the phone and round up a pitcher or two for one of our outfielders. As if it was that easy.
The problem here is that few teams have decent pitching to spare. A handful of teams would greatly benefit from a good outfielder, but not many of them are looking to give up arms or take on a lot of salary. Which will make the GM earn his money if he is to solve the dilemma.
One must assume the Jays won’t be trading Springer, given his high-profile, huge salary and the fact that he was the team’s marquee signing this winter. Which leaves Gurriel, Grichuk and Hernandez. Of the three, I – and I expect most fans – would be happiest to dispatch Grichuk. He is the highest-paid of the trio and arguably the least effective. He’s owed $31M over the next three years. And while I’m not enamored with him, he’s still a player who could be a nice upgrade for many teams. He’s not yet 30, and has definitely improved in his three years in Toronto (after four in St. Louis). Last year he hit .273, with 12 HR and 35 RBI, along with a .793 OPS , which was 14% above average. His strikeout rate dropped to 22% from 32% in his final two years in St.L. After being a negative defensively in Missouri, he’s shown me (and others) he can do the job, posting positive defensive WARS each year and making a dazzling catch or two this spring. He’s good, but it’s debatable as to how many teams would want to give up anything worthwhile and take on that amount of salary for a guy who’s not “all star” calibre.
Which leads us to the other two. Gurriel might be the best all-round player of the three, being a Gold Glove nominee last year and only 27. He’s also under contract for the next three years, but will bring in only a shade less than $15M for that stretch – a bargain for a guy who hit over .300 last year as well as getting the “D” props. Between 2019-20, he played 142 games (a tad less than one full regular season) and hit .289 with 31 homers, 33 doubles, 9 stolen bases, .836 OPS and a WAR of 2.6. He’d be a sweet addition to many rosters, but one Toronto wouldn’t want to give up that quickly.
Hernandez is perhaps the outlier of the group, being arguably the guy with the highest ceiling but also the most to prove. Teoscar is 28, and has been in the majors for five years, but put in only 379 games in that time. Up until last season, he was a spotty hitter and poor defender. Last year though, things came together and he was among the lead leaguers with a .919 OPS (46% above average) .579 slugging and 16 homers. He was right among the leaders for MVP consideration before a late season ribcage injury slowed him down. At the time that happened, he was second only to Mike Trout in homers and had an slugging percentage over .600. As it turned out, he still won a Silver Slugger Award. While he’s still a bit of a questionable outfielder, he does have a great arm when he gets to a ball in time. With a home run rate of one in 12 at bats last year (up from 1 in 22 as recently as ’18) he’s a potential MVP in waiting…and only earning a little over $4M this year. He’s arbitration-eligible in ’22 and ’23, making him a player many teams would love to have… and Toronto would be hard-pressed to drop.
As good as any of those three are, the big problem is few teams have decent starting pitching they want to get rid of; fewer still have that and lack deep outfields. The best match might possibly be Minnesota, a team with a serious challenger for Central supremacy in the young White Sox and two locked in outfielders in Byron Buxton and Max Kepler, then question marks. They’re big on young Alex Kiriloff, but he’s never played above AA before and is hitting just .129 this spring with a single homer. Jake Cave is probably their third OF, but any of Toronto’s trio would be an upgrade for Minny. They do have a decent roster of pitchers, but just what they’d offer is questionable. Perhaps they’d part with big Michael Pineda, but at 32 years old, almost 300 pounds and having missed three entire years due to injury since arriving in 2011, it’s equally questionable as to how much confidence he’d provide the Jays. He managed 26 innings last year, after a fairly good 2019 (11-5, 4.05, 146 innings.) Or maybe they’d part with Taylor Rogers, a pretty decent strikeout-throwing reliever who in ’19 saved 30 and featured an 8:1 K:BB ratio. He’d be a great closer to replace Yates, and would make it easier to spare either Ross Stripling or Steve Matz for the starting rotation and perhaps give the Jays a very deep left side of the ‘pen with Tim Mayza and Francisco Liriano both returning.
Colorado has only one legitimate set outfielder (Charlie Blackmon, after Ian Desmond decided to sit out this season) and would probably love to see what Gurriel or Hernandez would do in their mile-high air. Trouble is, they also don’t have much pitching. Jon Gray is the best the Jays could hope for there, and he’s a bit of an enigma- very good at times (11-8, 3.84 – good for that city – 25 starts, 50% of all contact being ground balls and WAR of 4.1 in 2019), not good just as often (2-4, 6.69 last year with career worsts for homers and low strikeout: walk ratios.)
L.A. could probably afford to let David Price come back to Toronto, a city and team he seemed to like a few years back, with the plethora of starting pitching they now have since adding mega-money man Trevor Bauer. The question marks there are A) what does Price have left, turning 36 this summer and having last pitched a full, and decent, season in 2018 and B) why would the Dodgers be anxious to add an outfielder given their existing World series-winning roster?
Ultimately, the way to solve the problem might be a more complicated route, involving either a third team (ie – sending someone like Grichuk to Minnesota for prospects, and in turn sending them or other high-end prospects to L.A. , or maybe Cincinnati for Sonny Gray if his back seems likely to let him back on the mound soon.) But that’s why Atkins earns the big money in the Blue Jays front office… getting us into April with a game plan better than “Ryu, whiny Roark and the lefty with the sore elbow and the kid who with the fireball and pulled groin who’s pitched about 100 innings over the past three years combined.” Because if that’s the deal, even if Teoscar overtakes Mike Trout in the home run and glory race, it’s probably not enough.
One Flew Over the Jays nest 
Jon Gray is the one I would love to see out of Colorado under normal conditions. By not pitching there half the time…he would be worth checking out.
I think Price could be had especially if someone took his salary because there is a chance he could be in the bullpen for the Dodgers…a chance because he didn’t pitch last year and they have Dustin May ready to roll who is 23 years old and doing great.
Both of those guys would be taking a chance…Price would probably be more predictable though. I think Gray though could breakout and be very good.
It’s always difficult to gauge Colorado pitchers properly (I suppose checking the home/road split would be a good place to start) so I don’t know which the “real” Jon Gray is… he seems highly regarded. Although LA don’t seem to worry much about payroll, I imagine they wouldn’t mind dumping Price’s, even though they only pay half of his $32M (Bosox still on hook for half)… I think he’d be a very decent #4 or 5 guy on toronto or most clubs. I noticed only about an hour after I posted that Minnesota demoted Kirilloff and are unclear on the starting outfield… an opening is there for Blue Jays
They were worried about payroll in the last 4 or 5 years and never went over…but this year they just said the hell with it…the reason being is because in 2 years everyone but Mookie will be off the books…all the big contracts anyway.
But yea I would see them dumping it if they could.
Gray pitched well in Colorado that one year…but it has to be hard for their pitchers to adjust to that and then go on the road. Kershaw is never the same the next game after leaving that place. They have to pitch different.
I never thought of that aspect, the adjustment a pitcher needs after leaving Denver next time out…
I think it makes sense because as we know baseball players are creatures of habit… you have to change things when you pitch there…and then change again he you leave.
Probably so… that’s why I seldom agree with changing rotations if you can avoid it (adding a day of rest especially seems counter-productive) or even shifting bullpens around much. I think a reliever SHOULD be able to pitch anytime – 7th, 8th, 9th, tie game, 2-run lead – equally but experience shows that’s not the case a lot of the time.
Yes I believe a reliever should be able to…from what I’ve read about them…they WANT to pitch at anytime…the more they pitch the more sharp they are. When you have a 7 day layoff for a reliever it’s a lifetime.