Tagged: 2016 predictions

Why the Royals Will Lose Their Crown

So, as noted in last post, I’m fearlessly predicting a Blue Jays repeat as division champs, along with Texas in the West and Cleveland in the Central, with Detroit and either New York or Houston making the wild card. Which will lead many to ask why not KC?

The Royals have done a great job of maximizing results from their “blue collar” lineup and perhaps set off a new trend in baseball, namely putting less emphasis on the starting rotation and more on the tail-end of games, aka the bullpen, and on defense. I give them props, but don’t see the magic continuing on this season. Asking Kendrys Morales at an old 32 to repeat his 106RBI production might be a bit much– and then there’s the bullpen.

The Royals magic in their championship seasons has largely been the amazing bullpen, as we know. Now, I have no problem with Wade Davis taking over the closer’s role that he inherited last season when Greg Holland got injured. Davis is as good, if not better, than Holland was at his peak – how many pitchers could post a season with an ERA of 1-even and then improve? Exactly what Wade did last year, lowering his ERA to a microscopic .94 and allowing only 33 hits through 67 innings. Davis will be lights out. problem is, who takes over for him as a “set up”? Kevin Herrera is quite decent, but not below-one ERA good, and besides who then takes over Herrera’s spot, or (new Blue Jay) Franklin Morales? The pair combined for 139 appearances in the middle innings last year, something the R’s haven’t been able to replace with this year’s roster.

Last but not least, the Royals now have the proverbial bullseye on their backs. As reigning World Series champs and two-time AL winners, they are now the team to beat; the team other teams shake up their rotation for to make sure the “ace” pitches against them, the team the kids of the other teams want to beat for bragging rights. A KC lead in the sixth will no longer be an automatic win this year, and with a rotation of the likes of Volquez and Duffy et al, the leads may be scarcer than a year back.

As for the Astros, the trendy pick to win this season… maybe. You have to admire a team that can go from 51 wins to 86 in just two years as Houston did; you have to love tiny Jose Altuve and the intensity plus skill he plays with. Altuve’s always a decent shot to win the batting title and should notch yet another 200 hit season; Carlos Correa has a lot of pressure on his young shoulders given how high projections for him are but might measure up. He’s off to a red-hot start and could easily be the best shortstop in the league by the mid-season classic. The pitching is fine, but not legendary; no AL Cy Young winner in the past six years has matched let alone bettered his Cy season (Felix Hernandez did up his win total from 13 to 14 but did so while having his ERA jump by over a run. If I was a Houston fan, I’d be plenty happy if Keuchel could finish with 16-10, 3.20.

Moreover, it’s tough to imagine them cutting down from their AL-worst 1392 strikeouts at the plate, opposition pitchers are going to be more wise to their free-swinging ways and capitalize on it more. Or maybe it’s just me- can we really envision a championship team with “senior statesman” Colby Rasmus??

We’ll look at the road ahead for Toronto next time…

And now, the AL outlook in brief

OK, I’m feeling a little tardy here; the Jays have already wrapped up their opening series and I’ve not yet posted my AL predictions. So rather than continue to labor away at my rather lengthy and in depth analyses of each team which I’d started on, I’ll give you hear a capsule summary of my outlook for the 2016 American League tallies.

If you wonder about any particular team or my reasoning, drop a line or add a comment and I’ll expand upon it. but for now, let’s agree that the Houston Astros are the top pick of most experts including Sports Illustrated which pick them to win it all (but admit to only having one right pick in the past 20 years.) Do I agree? See for yourself.

West:

Texas 87 wins

Houston 86

Seattle 83

LA Anaheim76

Oakland 72

Central:

Cleveland 88 wins

Detroit 87

Kansas City83

Chicago 78

Minnesota 75

East:

Toronto 91

New York 86

Baltimore 80

Boston 78

Tampa Bay 69

So we happily project the Jays repeating as division champs, joining the also-repeating Rangers, as well as the Indians and the Tigers hosting either the Yanks or the Tigers in the Wild Card.

We’ll look at how that might play out, as well as the picks for individual bests, next time out!

National League the Nationals League This Year?

 

The Crystal Ball, Part 1 : National League

Seeing as how it’s opening day for most teams, it’s high time to throw my hat into the ring of pundits who think they can predict the season ahead. We’ll start with the league we Jays fans know a little less about and care a little less for, the NL

East:

Washington- New manager Dusty Baker has smarts and experience and should be able to get decent results. Bryce Harper came into his own last year and should continue to ascend, even if his average drops a little due to his freakishly high BABIP last year (.369) Daniel Murphy won’t hit a homer every game (unlike last October) but is a nice addition to a good offense, Ben Revere should be in scoring position often for Harper. Rotation best in division, Strasburg pitching towards free agency likely to set career highs in innings and wins. I don’t like Papelbon the loose cannon as closer, but still look to Nats to win. 89 wins

New York – good again, but not World Series good, that rabbit’s foot got rubbed raw last year. Neil Walker great addition, one of the best all-around, least-heralded second basemen in game but D. Wright and C.Granderson are on downslopes of careers, Yoenis Cespedes is pretty unpredictable beyond 25 homers. Starting rotation is good, but not that good, a lot of pressure on youngsters Syndergaard and Matz. 86 wins

Miami – good defence and speed but all-in-all a very run of the mill team beyond Giancarlo Stanton (45 homers if he stays healthy this year) and Jose Fernandez. If they trade them away mid-season it’ll be a cellar-dweller season looking ahead to 2020 for hope, but otherwise the relatively weak division should land them 80 wins

Atlanta – you’d need to be ‘brave’ to be an optimistic Atlanta fan this year. Ditching Michael Bourn shows they’re looking beyond this year but still, a team with Freddie Freeman and Nick Markakis isn’t all bad and though it will make fans cry when they compare it to the 90s team, the rotation at least has 2 adequate arms atop it in Teheran and Norris. 71 wins

Philadelphia – the Phils have almost completed their makeover; little remains to remind of their glory days at the end of the last decade besides Ryan Howard who at some point will probably end up as a platoon DH somewhere in the AL at Philadelphia’s expense (financially at least.) The young crew doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence but should start to gel together and shows promise for down the road. Aaron Nola could be a break-out pitcher, he flew under the radar as a rookie last year and is getting good reviews this spring. 68 wins

Central:

Chicago – I’ll go along with the crowd – to a point. Cubs are the chic pick to win it all this year and while I’m not convinced, at least they should get to have a crack at it by making it into the post-season. Jason Heyward was a great, if pricey, acquisition and in Wrigley could have a break-out year. .300 and 35 homers wouldn’t surprise me. Ben Zobrist seems over-rated but is a good, versatile player who knows Joe Maddon well and, on that subject, the Maddon effect probably adds 3 or 4 wins a season to any team. Russell and Bryant seem sure-thing superstars-to-be but may not quite be there this year. I don’t expect Jake Arrieta to replay the second half of the season last year, but should be good for another 17 wins or so and a sub-3 ERA; Lester and Lackey not quite so much but are both still above-average. 93 wins

St. Louis – if there’s a team out there that would have benefitted from signing Justin Upton or (keeping) Jason Heyward, it’s the Cards. I like their starting rotation better than Chicago’s, in particular the addition of Mike Leake; five guys with 180 innings+ and a dozen or more wins each is realistic. But they’ll have a hard time improving on their 11th in runs scored in NL last year, especially since Matt Holliday seems to be aging a bit (at 36, no surprise his .804 OPS last season was a career low) . Pitching will keep them competitive, 87 wins

Pittsburgh – Maybe Ray Searage can help Jon Niese take it to the next level, as he did with AJ Burnett and JA Happ (the bigger question to Toronto fans, of course, is will the lessons stick with Happ?). If so the Pirates could have a rotation not far off the preceding two Central division teams; one could do worse than pick Gerritt Cole for a dark horse Cy Young winner this year. But Andrew McCutchen does not an offense make; Pirates may have trouble duplicating the NL 4th-best 697 runs of last season. 85 wins

Milwaukee – Nothing about the Brew Crew really stinks; problem is nothing really shines either. Ryan Braun and Chris Carter will hit some homers and added to Jonathans Villar and Lucroy put a decent number of runs on the board; Jimmy Nelson and Tyler Jungmann provide the nucleus of a decent rotation. But they’re about one 40 base-stealing leadoff hitter, one .300 hitter, about 4 years too late for Aaron Hill to make an impact and two 13-game winning starters away from contending. 72 wins

Cincinnati – the Queen City could probably put pictures of Joey Votto and Brandon Phillips at the front of their PR material ahead of pictures of the beautiful riverfront and hills; the city must be great for them to refuse any trades to cities where they might contend and improve their careers. The team has some talent, of course, Votto is always an MVP-calibre player (I’m guessing .280/27 HR/ 90 RBI, .375 OBP if he stays in red all season; he might be a .300/ 35/110/ .400 in a number of other lineups); Billy Hamilton can run like the wind but needs to get on base more than 27% of the time to help out doing so; Homer Bailey’s great when he’s healthy but is coming off Tommy John surgery and Anthony Desclafani is a solid young pitcher many scouts are quite high on, getting a chance to develop his stuff out of the spotlight. Big Q’s for them are will Hamilton steal 75 bases and will the team be able to get rid of Jay Bruce and Phillips at All-star break? 67 wins

West:

San Francisco – who had a better off-season in California? Not San Diego, by any means. LA lost one superstar starter and added an unpredictably good one. SF added two top-flight starters and have one former ace (Matt Cain) coming back from an injury-ridden season. Bumgarner, Cueto, Samardzija, Peavy; Casilla and Romo in a reasonably stacked ‘pen…it’ll be hard to run many runs up on the board against them. Lineup isn’t brilliant but is solid, through and through. Could be the long-awaited breakout year for Brandon Belt and last but not least, it is an even year again! 93 wins

Los Angeles – Clayton Kershaw may be the best pitcher in the majors and, it would seem certain, the most likeable Subway sandwich spokesman ever. But beyond him, the Dodgers hardly seem like an example of how to spend over $200 million well. Joc Pederson has chance to be a great but it may take more than this year to get him to learn plate discipline and cut down on his K’s. Obviously some real talent with likes of Gonzalez and Kendrick in infield and Yasiel Puig will be a superstar if he ever matures and stops battling his manager and teammates. Big Q’s are pitching-related: will Scott Kazmir be a 10-win, 4.00 ERA guy or a 16-win, 3.10 guy? Reports of much diminished velocity don’t bode well there. And is newcomer Kenta Maeda the next Yu Darvish or the next Kei Igawa? A tough team to evaluate, but let’s say 89 wins.

Arizona – good for the Diamondbacks for going for it. The expensive addition of Zack Greinke gives them a certified ace and lets them spit at LA in the process. Giving him 17 wins seems realistic, add in Shelby Miller, the best pitcher to lose 17 any time recently (6-17 but 3.02 ERA , 202 innings last year in Atlanta), it makes a decent rotation. Paul Goldschmidt is finally getting recognition as one of the game’s best hitters but might struggle to match last year’s numbers (.310, 33/110) without other big bats to back him. An improved team, but not by enough. 82 wins

San Diego Well, they kept one Upton, but call him Melvin or call him BJ, he’s still not the right one. Still some decent talent; Matt Kemp is said to be taking better swings this spring and managed 100 ribbies last year anyway; Jon jay, Alexei Ramirez are both better-than-average but not-quite-star additions; Tyson Ross is one of the best young pitchers in NL and I still think James Shields will deliver 200 innings and a dozen wins even though there are worries about how many homers he allowed last year. Fernando Rodney is a timebomb for a closer in more ways than one, the loss of Craig Kimbrel will hurt and all things considered, the Padres aren’t bad…but aren’t very good either. 70 wins

Colorado – not much on the field for the Rockies fans to be high on. Carlos Gonzalez is great and had a big comeback season last year (40 homers, .525 slugging) which should make him a great July addition for a contending team. Nolan Arrenado is great already (89 extra base hits last season was a record for a third baseman) and at 25 should continue to progress, making the sky the limit for him by the time Colorado has matured its prospects enough to win. Jose Reyes will almost undoubtedly miss some time due to his (now dropped) domestic violence charges; seeing him first-hand last year as we Jays fans did, one suspects the Rockies wouldn’t be in any hurry to bring him back were it not for his big contract they’d love to dump. Rookie Trevor Story is said to be a much better defensive player already and hit OK in minors. Guessing they trade Gonzo, put them down for 65 wins.

Next up, we get to the real fun – the American League!