This month has two full moons, meaning we’re coming up to a “blue moon”. Must be too, because for “once in a blue moon” I’m actually cheering for the Yankees in the American League. Hey, I can admire Tampa Bay and their ability to win on a small budget, but I just can’t warm up to them nor their “creative” twists that are altering baseball as we know it. Like “bullpen days” ignoring the concept of starting pitchers, and the defensive shifts galore. Whenever some new twist on the traditional game comes around to annoy fans, it probably began in that sterile dome by the Gulf. Similarly, I just can’t seem to find a whole lot to like about Oakland beyond their use of yellow in the uniforms and don’t move much beyond thinking of the obnoxious and smug Rickey Henderson-era A’s of the ’80s. And as for the Astros I once quite liked, it’s hard to get behind the “Champions of Cheat”…especially when the only ones who seem to have acknowledged any remorse for the 2017 scandal are a few pitchers who weren’t involved anyway! So I find myself in the unusual position of cheering for New York to go to the World Series, which I think they will. Last night’s game showcased their power and now they only have to win two out of four against Tampa to move on to the ALCS.

In the National, one would expect Atlanta should easily clean the floor with Miami, and LA should top San Diego (I mean, really both teams have similar top-drawer hitting but the Dodgers pitching is miles ahead of the brown-and-yellow’s). That’s what should happen, but hey…I got all four AL series wrong in my first round picks, so who can tell in 2020? It’ll be interesting.

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Who can tell what will happen in 2020 begs the question “who can tell what will happen in 2021?” That applies to baseball, as to the world in general.

In context of baseball, a syndicated column yesterday suggested the Blue Jays should take a plunge and trade for Francisco Lindor. Lindor would of course add another solid bat to an improving offensive lineup and more importantly, solidify defense on a team which some measures put as next to worst in the league. Of course, this makes the assumption that Cleveland actually want to trade Lindor, which many assumed they would this year. They didn’t. And I think beyond the question of whom they’d want in compensation or if they believe their window of opportunity is closed by now, before that would happen the Indians and Jays and the other 28 teams to boot have five big looming questions ahead before getting going in 2021. They are:

1) Will Covid be contained, and how will that effect the season?

2) Will fans come back?

3) What of the Minor leagues?

4) Will Manfred’s merry rule changes carry over?

5) How optimistic are they about reaching a new CBA?

The first question is the biggie, and of course, for all society, not just pro sports. We can hope by next spring the pandemic will have cooled and public health will be reasonable again but there’s not a lot of scientific reason to expect that to be the case. We can have a clown in Washington telling us not to worry about it. But it’s too late to worry for over 215 000 Americans who’ve died from it already and the about 50 000 people who are being diagnosed with it daily on top of the nearly eight million confirmed cases so far. Alarmingly, the number of cases have been rising sharply in Canada over the past couple of weeks after it seemed under control there. If there’s an effective vaccine available and if a large number of people agree to take it by next spring, or if somehow the virus seems to burn itself out, maybe there will be a “normal” 2021 season. 162 games, inter-divisional games again, Toronto playing in Toronto, after a normal spring training in Arizona and Florida. But there’s no guarantee of any of that happening.

Right now in fact, it looks more likely that Covid will still be a real threat in the waning days of winter and we don’t know how baseball will react. Cancel spring training, or have each team work out on their own as they did in July? Cancel everything until summer in hopes of a decrease in cases again and play a shortened schedule again? Go ahead with a 162-game schedule but in empty stadiums again, perhaps in “bubbles” in just two or three cities? No one knows.

That leads to the next question, if fans will return. Even if we assume MLB can pencil in a normal, 162 game schedule and not be prohibited from allowing fans into the stands, there’s a big question mark as to whether or not the masses will flock back. If the disease is still running rampant, one might think very few fans will risk going out to the stadiums, even if masks are asked for. And, with the economy damaged by the effects of the pandemic, fewer people will have jobs and disposable money to be able to afford to go. So in effect, while they know there will be some TV money rolling in, owners right now could be seeing a scenario that ranges from 81 home games with high attendance of happy-to-be-back fans to a year of zero attendance again. My guess, and only a vague one at that, is that attendance will suffer mightily even if stadiums are open. The times of 3-million attendances for teams may be a thing of the past. Budgets will need to reflect that.

Another huge question mark is what about the players not on the MLB 26, or 28, man roster? Will there be minor leagues for them to play and develop their skills in next year? Many young players already lost this whole year of developing their skills in organized ball, which is going to slow the procession of talented rookies to the big leagues next year. If it appears that we will be without minor leagues again in 2021, that will surely influence owners behaviors. If there is no “AAA” team to draw from and surplus of young bullpen arms, for example, to ferry back and forth, owners will need to stack up on more major-league talent right now. Young players may become more expendable and tradeable; guys who would right now be deemed bench players or auxiliary types may in turn become much more in demand.

The risk of no minor league season is exacerbated by MLB itself. The agreement with Minor League Baseball ran out last week, and it’s no secret Rob Manfred wants to radically change the minors, cutting out teams, changing some of the minor league team alignments and generally reducing their roles. It’s not improbable the minor league teams might revolt or strike, even if there is an option of them playing in 2021.

The fourth question isn’t as weighty, but does interest a lot of us. Rob Manfred pushed through a lot of rule changes this year, theoretically just because of the special circumstances created by the short schedule and virtual-quarantining the teams had to endure. Rosters were expanded from last year’s 25 to 28 (before Covid, there were already plans to increase by one to 26); double headers were shortened to seven-inning games because illness-related postponements meant extra-heavy schedules (in some cases, nine games in a week) for some teams, the NL adopted the designated hitter because there were so many more interleague games and of course, the beloved-by-Rob “phantom runners” with base runners appearing out of nowhere to start extra innings. The question of course, is will these indeed be temporary measures or will they become a permanent part of the game?

These things of course will play a small part in how popular the game will be with older, traditional fans who by and large hate the new measures, but could also influence the team’s offseason moves… the roster size especially. The bigger the roster, the more room there is for “specialists” like guys whose only real talent is good base-running to pinch run, or specialist relief pitchers. The tighter the roster, the more versatility will count… a guy who can play any infield position with average capability might become a more valuable asset than a Gold Glove-caliber third baseman who refuses to move off the hot corner.

Last but not least, even after the 2021 season, another roadblock looms ahead. The collective bargaining agreement expires after it, and it’s obvious that the desires of the owners and players’ union are far apart. How optimistic they are about reaching an agreement may influence things this winter. If a team expects a shutdown in 2022, for instance, they might hesitate to go after free agents for anything but a one-year contract. If they think they’ll get some kind of salary cap in place, small-market teams might shun making any big salary increases in hopes of a more even financial playing field a year ahead. And needless to say, if they think that they will be without fans in the seats in 2021, teams will be more reluctant to break the bank on premier free agents. Oooh, I foresee some interesting Tweets ahead with Trevor Bauer and Marcus Stroman both becoming free agents in a couple of weeks…

50 000 fans in the stands in Georgia in July cheering for their All Stars, with the Blue Jays five games up in the AL East? Or fifteen teams isolated together in hotels in L.A., 15 more in Dallas, each readying to begin a 48-game season in a total of four or five empty ballparks on that day? Your guess is as good as mine. And until we have some answers, I doubt that we’ll see Francisco Lindor in a Jays cap…nor many other blockbuster changes on the other 29 rosters.