Jays Worst Gamble Being No Gamble Now?

Well fans, is it time for the Blue Jays to say “enough is enough” and shake things up? Last night’s game, a 12-2 drubbing by the Dodgers pretty much said it all for Toronto so far this year… questionable pitching and a lack of hitting (Danny Jansen‘s first homer of the year excepted, once again he seems one of the more regular hitters in the lineup when healthy). If you saw last year’s version of the Jays, you’ve seen a slightly better version of this year’s. A team which is theoretically loaded with talent, especially among position players but struggles to score runs and seem all but incapable of overcoming even a two run deficit early in the game. So far they’ve scored a mediocre 98 runs (prior to Sunday’s game) or 3.6 per game. That friends, won’t cut it, even if the starting pitching is all aces … which it hasn’t been, although all in all, it’s still the team’s strongest suit. The last time they scored more than 5 runs was back on April 6 – and that was a 9-8 loss – and they’ve done that a total of only three times thus far. All the more frustrating when you look back at how they were piling up big scores in Spring Training.

Daulton Varsho is the only player with more than 3 homers a month into the season,the Dodgers have three with six or more.  Alejandro Kirk has yet to launch one despite playing 19 of our 27 games; and among their current batting averages are .167 (Kirk), .193 (Kevin Kiermaier), .216 (Bo Bichette) and .206 (Vladimir Guerrero Jr). Opposing pitchers must feel some kind of natural high walking out to the mound against Toronto right now, regardless of Fantasy League projections and conventional wisdom about the talents of the Jays crew.

So I say, let’s make changes here. Starting with :

1) – bye John. Time to replace the manager. Whether John Schneider is a nice guy or not, whether the players like him (they seem to), whether or not he’s been in the organization for a long time, it’s becoming clear he’s in over his head. He seems to stay beholden to analytics stats and makes oddball lineup choices. Varsho hit home runs in two straight games earlier this month, Schneider sits him the following game. Highly rated prospect Addison Barger is called up and listed as a shortstop by the team’s website. He’s also played a fair bit of Third. Schneider puts him into Left Field for his Major League debut. By the second inning a routine ball bounced by him out there, resulting in an error and a run for Kansas City… who won by one run. And the kicker there, the regular Third Baseman, Isiah Kiner Falefa wasn’t even in the lineup! It seems like John’s mission is to showcase how inventive he is and how the team is full of players who can play anywhere on any night. Which maybe they can… only not very well. The bottom line though is that whether he’s too chummy or too yell-y, he’s not motivating this team to do it’s best. You can’t fire 26 players, or even the 13 position ones. Let’s look for a manager with a different approach who can maybe squeegee the best results out of at least most of the players and find ways to keep the team in the game when down 2-0. For now, it seems making bench coach Don Mattingly the interim manager would be smart, and perhaps look about for guys to fit the bill better after the All Star Break or next year if Don falters too.

2) – adios Guillermo. Same as above basically. I wasn’t the only fan who was dumbfounded that the team brought back last year’s hitting coach, Guillermo Martinez, after the highly underwhelming results he got from the players last year. They did make concessions though, bringing up minor league coach Matt Hague to be an assistant and donning Don (Mattingly) with an extra job description, “offensive director.” Well the offence hasn’t been directed to do anything great after one month and outside of Justin Turner, it’s hard to find anyone in the lineup who’s hitting at what we’d consider their full ability. Most have taken a significant step backwards from last year’s poor numbers. Time to find someone who can do things differently. For now, maybe I’d give Hague a crack at it but I’d be looking through the office for former sluggers on the team payroll like Edwin Encarnacion or Bo’s daddy Dante Bichette to give the hitting a new direction.

3) – shock the baseball world a little. This is a not-so-young anymore lineup built around two supposed “generational talents” – Bo Bichette and of course, Vladdy. Problem is neither has played like a generational talent lately. Both could be free agents after next season. Instead of wringing our hands over whether they can be signed to long-term deals, maybe it’s time to listen ot offers on one or even both of them. The team would still hold the cards, there’s no pressure to trade either player. But it might result in a better roster and maybe shake up what looks a lot like complacency among the players. A suggestion –

Hello Houston. The Astros are off to an astoundingly poor, and surprising start after being resident in the ALCS for the past seven years. At 7-19, seven games out in a rather weak (so far) division, the ‘Stros are quickly falling out of contention. For instance, if it takes 90 wins to make the playoffs this year – about average of late – they’d need to go 83- 53 down the stretch, or .610 baseball. And that would just be to snatch a Wild Card. Time’s running out for them to look like this will be year eight for them in the Championship series. So… why not offer Vladimir Guerrero, pitcher Eric Swanson, and either Bowden Francis and maybe a minor leaguer like Chad Dallas to Houston for outfielder Kyle Tucker and starter Justin Verlander?

The Astros are in desperate need for a new First Baseman. Aging Jose Abreu is becoming a bust, hitting .083 so far (5 for 62). He has one RBI. His WAR is already a staggering -1.4 for the year, and his OPS – OPS not batting average – is .244. With his age and facts like how his hard hit ball rate has fallen from 52% in ’22 to 43% last year to 26% this year and how , even in his prime, he led the league in grounding into double plays three straight years from 2019, and things don’t look like they’ll turn around quickly for him. Guerrero, even if he kept running at this year’s rate, would be a huge upgrade… and something tells me he’d kick it up a notch in a new uniform. For the Jays, Tucker is a reliable bat and outfielder. His ceiling isn’t as high as Guerrero’s but perhaps neither is his “floor” as low. So far he’s hitting .283 this season with 3 HR and 17 RBI and an .898 OPS. The last three years he’s hit 30, 30 and 29 home runs. He’d be a good everyday outfielder (with Kiermaier on the IL already with hip troubles and George Springer not only not hitting but not seeming like a 7 day a week guy anymore we could use that to supplement Varsho) and it would allow the team to keep infielders – like Barger and Kiner-Falefa – in the infield more. Spencer Horwitz at Buffalo seems fully capable of playing first for Toronto, and hitting reliably even if not with great power. Then again, we’re not getting great power numbers from our existing great power hitter, so what’s there to lose? Like VG, Tucker’s a free agent after next year.

Verlander would bring his level of professionalism to the club and is potentially a free agent after this year. He would be a good addition to the rotation, needless to say, add maturity and a winning attitude to the clubhouse and let rookie Yanier Rodriguez pitch out of the bullpen for the rest of ’24. He’s looked fine in three starts, but it’s been often repeated, the Jays plan to carefully limit his innings pitched this year given his few professional innings behind him and his lack of pitching last year. As it stands now, he might hit 100 or 110 innings by the All Star break and potentially be “shut down” for the rest of the calendar.Not a great formula for a starting rotation moving forward.

Swanson would significantly bolster the Astros bullpen, which has been terrible, with a 5.13 ERA and a league low two saves. And someone like Francis or Dallas, even both, would give them stopgap starters to keep them afloat til perhaps Christian Javier or Jose Urquidy return from the IL.

It’s worth a try. In fact maybe the only thing not worth a try is for the Jays to maintain the status quo any longer.

Varsho Hits Still Don’t Make Atkins Trade A Home Run

It’s been pretty exciting to see Daulton Varsho swinging a hot bat at last. On Friday he hit his first homer of the year, against Colorado, then on Saturday he followed that up with a grand slam against the Rockies. Come Wednesday, he swatted two more against the Yankees, pole-vaulting him into the team lead in the category with… four. Marcell Ozuna (Atlanta) and Mike Trout (LAA) have eight already in case you’re trying to keep track.

As much as fans have loved seeing Varsho finally start to hit upto his potential, probably no one is breathing easier about it than GM Ross Atkins. Because he was quite frankly looking more and more like Jack after he came home with a sack of beans he’d traded the cow for. To refresh your memory, Atkins traded for Varsho from Arizona in the winter of 2022-23, giving the Diamondbacks young catcher Gabriel Moreno and outfielder Lourdes Gurriel in exchange. To say this hasn’t worked out too well.

Now Varsho, did play excellent defense in left field for Toronto last season. His 157 games started in the outfield led the American League (that surprised me) and he was excellent defensively, with a 2.8 defensive WAR and a Gold Glove nomination (my memory tricked me into thinking he won one; in fact he didn’t). Clearly he was an upgrade in the field over Gurriel who was generally “iffy” at best with the glove. However, with the bat it was another story.

Varsho hit just .220 last season (down from .235 the year before), with 20 HR (down from 27) and drove in 61 (down from 74). A young player going into his fourth season, second as a regular everyday player, shouldn’t see numbers already regress. His OPS of .674 was graded at 15% below league average. He followed that up by going 0 for 5 in the team’s two ignominious Wild Card games. Not numbers you like to hear from your corner outfielders.

Over in the desert meanwhile, Gurriel made the All Star Team. Although his batting average (.261) was a career low, it was still – obviously – better than Varsho’s and he hit 24 HR, driving in 82, both up well from his previous season with the Jays. In the post-season, he hit .270 with three home runs. Overall, his WAR was 3.0 on the year and his OPS, .772.

That might seem like a slight edge to Arizona, but Gurriel did become a free agent last winter. They resigned him, and currently his 20 RBI are second-best in the NL. But factor in Moreno and that’s where the trade begins to bring terms like “hoodwinked” – to be polite – on for Atkins.

Moreno was a top-rated catching prospect in Toronto, and blossomed in Phoenix. In his first full MLB season he won the Gold Glove for catching, had a 4.3 WAR including a 3.1 defensive rating, best in baseball for catchers. Part of that stems from him being able to throw out 39% of base-stealers, also best in the league. With the bat he hit .284, with seven homers and 50 RBI. He even stole six bases himself. He had a .747 OPS, and in the post-season he was a rock behind the plate and hit four homers for the D-backs.

Toronto’s most-used catcher on the other hand, Alejandro Kirk, threw out 18% of base-stealers (respectable but not unusually good), hit .250 with eight HR and 43 RBI, but had a below-average .692 OPS. And he kept his career streak alive, not stealing a base yet again. At 1238 plate appearances without one, he’s about half way to tying Russ Nixon for the all-time MLB record for the most times up without ever grabbing one.  No wonder, given that he is one of, if not the slowest runner in the league… and at 5’8”, 245 pounds, and rising, that isn’t likely to change soon. His slow running wouldn’t be a big deal if he hadn’t hit 50% or more of all his batted balls since 2022 on the ground.

The point here isn’t to call out Kirk, who all things considered is a good, very durable catcher, nor Varsho. Toronto’s pitchers seem to like throwing to him and he’s good at “framing” pitches. It is merely to show that over a year later, skeptics of the trade were right – trading a potential superstar two-way catcher and a good-hitting outfielder for one “glove-first “ outfielder was hardly a smart move.

We hope Daulton keeps dinging at the plate – the team sure needs a bit of extra firepower from somewhere in the lineup. But, one might think even if Varsho keeps hitting and gets into the 30 HR bracket, the trade will continue to look worse and worse on the Jays. And don’t even get me started on the Seattle trade Atkins made around the same time, sending Teoscar Hernandez away for reliever Eric Swanson. There were enough people already commenting on that one Wednesday when Swanson, in his first appearance of the season, blew the lead in the 9th and let the Yankees come back to beat Toronto 6-4. Swanson coughed up three runs, including the winning one, in just one-third of an inning. Hernandez meanwhile has 5 HR and 18 RBI (third best in the NL) with his new team, the Dodgers.

Think about those moves too much and you might begin to think the trade the Jays need to make now is one for a new General Manager.

The First Six’s Good, Bad & Ugly

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Well, 6 games in and we’ve already seen the highs and lows of an entire season here in Jays Fan Land, it might seem. A couple of wins make the team look like the reincarnation of the ’61 Bronx bombers – everything they were not last year – and a win last night down to their last out showed an exciting “never say die” quality to them. On the other hand, in two losses they had a hard time mustering a hit, let alone a run, and in the other loss… well we won’t go there. Other than to say so much for the pre-game feeling of “we’re lucky Justin Verlander’s on the IL still and they have this no-name Ronel Blanco filling in! With Verlander, you never know if he’s going to throw a no-hitter!…”

All in all,a 3-3 record to begin the year isn’t bad, given that all the games have been on the road and against opponents who finished last year with more wins than the Jays. But the team needs to do better than “isn’t bad” for the remaining 156 to make it a worthwhile season.

A few quick thoughts – some things to like:

Justin Turner – JT said he planned to come to town and earn respect, not just be revered because of his 15 season history and 2020 World Series ring. Well, so far, mission accomplished! After his first game, where he was kept at bay by Tampa, he’s 7 for 16. he’s already had two 3-hit games, including last night’s and he’s added a walk in both of those games as well. Two of last night’s three hits were doubles. For the first time in some time, Toronto has a real DH that hits like a DH.

Jose Berrios – Gausman’s wonky shoulder early on in spring led to Berrios being the Opening Day starter. So far, he’s looking like a guy worthy of that title. In both of his starts, he’s gone 6 innings, pitched 88 and 91 pitches (strong for first week of season) and has allowed 2 runs (win against Tampa) and last night, just one despite being kept on his feet all night after allowing 6 hits and 3 walks. He’s pitching well but more importantly, pitching like a champion. Anyone can win when everything’s working. Only some of the best can keep the team in the “W” column when the opponent’s seem to “have his number”.

Vladimir Guerrero – he’s had good games at the plate and a couple of bad ones, But he’s taken 5 walks already, showing maybe he’s relying more on his good eye for the strike zone than he did last season. And his one homer was a 450 foot blast to centerfield, sixth longest of his whole career.

Some things not to like as much :

Infield Defence – Justin Turner’s been hitting like a champ but has already made two errors at third base… not good when he’s only had three balls to handle so far! JT may be best suited to an everyday DH, and not as much a backup third baseman. That’s why we have Biggio anyway and the likes of Addison Barger in AAA behind Kiner-Falefa. And let’s not even delve into why Bo Bichette, who looked decent last year in the field has regressed and already made three errors in just four games.

Bowden Francis – actually, half and half with Francis. In his start, his first in the Bigs, he went past 5 innings, and threw 61 of his 78 pitches for strikes. He’s clearly challenging the hitters, Sadly, they were answering his challenge, clipping ten hits including three homers off him in what would be a 10-0 debacle of a loss. Basically, when infielder Isiah Kiner-Falefa is the most effective pitcher on the night for you, thats a night not to repeat. Francis has decent pitches and obviously, a good control of them. Now he needs to get the mental part of the game down and out-think the hitters if he wants to stay in the rotation, and that said..

Pitching Depth – we’ve hammered this subject about into the ground, but who is next on the depth chart if Francis falters again or a starter gets injured? Mitch White? Maybe, he’s much improved over his 2022, early-’23 version but he’s also useful as a long man in the bullpen now. Why the team didn’t sign at least one more good starting pitcher this off-season is as big a mystery now as it was when Spring Training began (and there were still free agent pitchers for the signing.)

Well, let’s see what the next six games bring!

Jays Make Playoffs; Braves, Dodgers Stay In Century Club & Other Predictions For ’24

Opening Day is here – for real this time, in cities in the U.S. – so I make haste in my predictions for the way things will shake up this season. By the way, as an aside, games in New York and Philadelphia are already postponed for today due to cold, rainy conditions. Who thinks it’s a good idea to schedule games in open air facilities in March in places like those, Detroit, Boston or Minneapolis? Meanwhile, Toronto don’t see their home (domed, climate-controlled) stadium until well into April.

Anyway, let’s get down to it – my crystal baseball was shined up last night and says this is what to expect to see at the season’s end, standings wise. Numbers behind the team are predicted win-loss total, with the games behind the leader after that.

AMERICAN LEAGUE-

East

Baltimore 91-71 __

Toronto 88-74 -3

New York 87-75 -4

Tampa Bay 83-79 -8

Boston 69-93 -22

Central

Minnesota 85-77 __

Detroit 81-81 -4

Cleveland 75-87 -10

Kansas City 72-90 -13

Chicago 65-97 -20

West

Texas 90-72 __

Houston 86-76 -4

Seattle 85-77 -5

LAA 66-96 -24

Oakland 63-99 -27

NATIONAL LEAGUE

East

Atlanta 100-62 __

Philadelphia 90-72 -10

New York 80-82 -20

Miami 75-87 -24

Washington 66-96 -34

Central

St. Louis 86-76 __

Chicago 85-77 -1

Milwaukee 84-78 -2

Pittsburgh 81-81 -5

Cincinnati 76-86 -10

West

Los Angeles 100-62 __

Arizona 91-71 -9

San Francisco 87-75 -13

San Diego 80-82 -20

Colorado 65-97 -35

That would lead to, obviously the division winners making the Post-season as well as the Blue Jays (! yay!) , Yankees and Astros in the AL as Wild Cards and Diamondbacks, Phillies and Giants in the NL as such. The two Central divisions look lacklustre but very closely matched, so they both might be pretty exciting races down the line.

Math students might note that this projection is interesting because only 12 of 30 teams are expected to have losing seasons… but some of the bad teams are real bad and there are a whole lot of teams crowded in right around .500.

If Pittsburgh do indeed hit .500, it will be their first non-losing season since 2018. If the Nationals have a losing season – and everyone expects that – it will mean that they still haven’t had a winning season since their 2019 World Series championship. I think that’s what they refer to as “feast to famine!” 88 wins is coincidentally a sort of “magic number” for Toronto. If they win 88 or more this season, it will give them a winning record all-time… currently they have 3687 wins and 3700 losses since they hit the field in 1977.

I’m not going to comment on all those predictions, at least not today, but a few quick notes about ones which might surprise :

Baltimore is good, no doubt about it. But it’s hard to follow up a 100 win season with another and I don’t think their pitching is “all that.” Corbin Burnes was a good addition, obviously, but they let go two durable (albeit not great last year) starters in Kyle Gibson and Jack Flahery. With Kyle Bradish having a torn UCL, Tommy John surgery can’t be far off for him and both he and John Means start on the IL. And while Craig Kimbrel is a good bullpen arm, 2024 Kimbrel is not 2014 Kimbrel… ergo, probably not as good as Felix Bautista was last year.

The Jays, I will talk about in depth later this week/weekend, but my win prediction for them is creeping up after seeing how well they hit in Spring. Guys like Springer, Varsho and newcomer Kiner-Falefa look rejuvenated and nothing like the weak bats they were last season. They still should have added more pitching, but overall, they didn’t really lose ground in the division this winter…

thanks in part to the Yankees. With Gerritt Cole off for at very least the first two months of the year (and I’m guessing more), suddenly their starting rotation seems iffy, especially if you don’t think Carlos Rodon is “ace material” . As I said last year, I don’t! By the way, I said that before he posted a 6.85 ERA after a handful of games before injuring himself again, but after the pinstripes showered him with $162 m. Soto should hit up a storm there but… but… remember how he took a long time to acclimatize himself to a new environment when traded to San Diego in 2022. Not every player shines under the media microscope in the Bronx.

Over to the West, I buck the trend and see the Rangers carrying on their World Series success …not , in all likelihood to another championship but at least to a division title. Agreed, their pitching is shaky, but they should hit enough to keep them above their downstate rivals who also are getting a bit old and have pitching issues. Justin Verlander is 41… and on the IL.He should pitch before the end of April and is still their best starter. That’s becoming a problem. I predicted his 2022 Cy Young season. This year I predict he won’t win one. He won’t be bad but an achy, 41 year old JV isn’t going to blow the doors off that many teams (still, I could see him go 165 innings with a 3.60 ERA).

Well, we’ll perhaps glance a bit more at the NL soon but for now… you know what time it is …PLAY BALL!

Who Will Need Extra Space On Their Mantelpiece This Fall?

With the Opening Day of the season (for 28 teams at least) a mere day away now, it’s time to look to the crystal baseball and make some predictions about what lies ahead on the diamond over the next six months or so. Today we’ll look at my picks for some of the major individual awards for the season. I’ll pick my top three or four picks, plus a “dark horse” candidate that just might surprise people and pull it off.

MVP –

American League-

1 – Juan Soto, NYY,

2 – Corey Seager, Tex ,

3 – Vladimir Guerrero Jr, Tor 

4 – Gunnar Henderson, Bal

Dark- Bobby Witt Jr, KC

National League –

1 – Mookie Betts, LA,

2 – Ronald Acuna Jr, Atl,

3 – Trea Turner, Phi,

4 – Corbin Carroll

Dark – Oneil Cruz, Pit

CY YOUNG –

American League –

1 – Kevin Gausman, Tor ,

2 – Pablo Lopez, Min ,

3 – Louis Castillo, Sea,

4 – Grayson Rodriguez, Bal

Dark – Tarik Skubal, Det

National League –

1 – Spencer Strider, Atl

2 – Zac Gallen, Arz. LA,

3 – Zack Wheeler, Phi,

4 – Jordan Montgomery, Arz

Dark- Shota Imanaga, Chi

ROOKIE OF YEAR–

American League –

1 – Evan Carter, Tex

2 – Jackson Holliday, Bal

3 – Wyatt Langford, Tex

Dark – Ricky Tiedemann, Tor

National League –

1 – Yoshinobu Yamamoto, LA,

2 – Jackson Chourio, Mil,

3 – Shota Imanaga, Chi

Dark – Paul Skenes, Pit

MANAGER OF YEAR –

American League –

1 – Brandon Hyde, Bal

2 – AJ Hinch, Det

Dark – John Schneider, Tor

National League –

1 – Brian Snitker, Atl

2 – Oliver Marmol, STL

Dark – Derek Shelton, Pit

I won’t elaborate on most of these for brevity and because most seem fairly predictable predictions anyway! Bu a few notes … In the AL, I won’t suggest collusuion but it already seems like there’s an air of “the fix is in” for MVP. Most writers seem to flat out assume Soto is already the MVP before he takes one official at bat in Yankee pinstripes. It’s reminiscent of a few years back when Mike Trout was treated the same way; baseball needs a poster boy and for years it was Trout. He’s been replaced a bit by Ohtani lately, but it doesn’t hurt to have one in the even bigger metropolis on the East coast. That said, Soto should do very well in New York- I wouldn’t be surprised to see him hit 40 HR and have an OPS above .900, especially if Aaron Judge can stay in the lineup more than 2/3 of the time to make their lineup deeper. As for VG, let’s just say I’m an optimist. The Jays have been hitting up a storm this spring across the board, let by Guerrero who’s numbers (.463 avg., .707 slugging, 11 RBI in 15 games) look a lot like his spring numbers in 2021, his near-MVP season. If others in the lineup can stay hot too, he should see better pitches to hit and be able to be more discerning with his swings and then I wouldn’t be surprised to see him also do what Soto might, ergo 40 HR, a .900 or so OPS, perhaps 115 RBI.

Likewise I think Gausman is due. Despite giving the team nightmares a few weeks ago with his sore shoulder, Kevin has come along and pitched in excellent form on the team’s final spring training outing. He seems to keep getting better and better as he goes along and this could be his year. After all, Gerritt Cole – optimistically projected by NY to miss two months and suffering from an “inflamed elbow” – isn’t going to repeat as the Cy Young winner and right now, it seems almost like the bulk of the top-notch starting pitching is landing in the National.

I think, despite his terrible MLB debut (in Korea), Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s going to have a huge season for LA – 200 strikeouts, ERA under 3 wouldn’t surprise me much. But I think Chicago’s nabbing of fellow Japanese pitcher Shota Imanaga might have been the best under-the-radar free agent signing of this past winter and he too might put up All Star numbers. Speaking of under-valued free agents, look for newly signed Diamondback Jordan Montgomery to have a career year, and with Gallen and Kelly give Arizona a starting rotation rivaled only by Philadelphia in the NL. They could end up with three of the top five or six Cy ballot-getters.

Next up – we’ll look at the actual predictions that matter – what teams will be left standing in October!

Maybe Ignoring The Fans Is The New Tradition

Yay! The 2024 MLB season is officially under way! That’s the good news. Winter, it seems is finally over by any way of measuring and just like dandelions on suburban lawns, hope is springing eternal in most cities, Toronto included. The bad news – once again Rob Manfred shows a total disregard for tradition and for keeping the existing fans happy. In other words, business as usual in the Manfred Era.

If you’re confused and thought Spring Training was still going on, don’t feel dumb. It is. But in his infinite “let’s do things utterly differently than before” mantra, Mr. Manfred decided to begin the season for two teams a week early. On a different continent. While fans slept.

Yesterday the season kicked off with a game between the Dodgers and Padres… at the Skydome. No, not the Toronto Skydome (now, of course the “Rogers Centre”) but the Sky Dome in Seoul, South Korea! They played a second game today. Early. Very early – around 3 AM, California time, where presumably most of the fans who really want to see the game reside.For the record, L.A. Won the first game, 5-2. San Diego rebounded today to outslug L.A., 15-11. Mookie Betts hit the first homer of the season, and had a mammoth 4-hit, 6-RBI game, in a losing cause. Catcher Will Smith had four hits too for the Dodgers, but highly-touted newcomer Yoshinobu Yamamoto got roughed up for five runs in his MLB debut and lasted but an inning. Jake Cronenworth went 4-4 for the Padres and had a double and a triple. Sounds exciting right? Probably was, but how many fans of either team got up to watch it long before sunrise?

I have nothing at all against Korea nor its players. Hyun Jin Ryu is already missed in the Blue Jays roster and, we hear, clubhouse. The Koreans love baseball and have produced a number of good major leaguers. That’s good for the game. What’s not is wasting what could be, should be, a chance to have a huge celebratory Opening Day fans actually can attend or watch on TV.

For many years, Opening Day meant a weekday afternoon game in Cincinnati. It was tradition. It was at very least an “unofficial” holiday in southwestern Ohio. But we know how much “tradition” means to the current brain trust in charge of the game. So for some years now, the first game happens almost simultaneously, in late March not early April, in 15 cities with all teams taking part. OK. Makes sense perhaps. But how much sense does this make?

How many hometown fans of either team had the ability, or the timetable to allow getting up to watch? How few fans had the money needed to take the flight over to watch in person ? How happy are the Dodgers and Padres to have to give up four or five spring training games to do this. Or to fly 13 hours, 5950 miles to get to Korea, then two days later have to fly 13 hours, 5950 miles to get home again? (Or add on another hour and about 500 miles for those returning to the Spring Training camps in Arizona).

Here’s an idea for 2025 – have opening day take place in Cincinnati again, maybe at 6PM, and have their media partner, Fox TV televise it nationally, like the All Star Game or a World Series one. Have a number of former greats, Hall of Famers present, get big name stars to sing the anthem and “Take Me Out To the Ballpark” … go the whole nine yards. But no, seeing the course the league is taking, Rob Manfred is probably on the phone with Elon Musk right now inquiring about the chances of getting two teams on a rocket to Mars next March instead.

Anyway – Play Ball! We’ll look at some predictions for the year ahead shortly.

Did They Find A Truckful Of Magic Bats?

OK Jays fans – for once it seems like there are good things to report here. The last couple of weeks have been encouraging indeed in the Grapefruit League, and the team suddenly looks like one that is actually poised to compete this season, which might not be what we – or most pundits expected even a couple of weeks ago. Yes, yes, it is very true it is only spring and the games are exhibition ones so it doesn’t pay to put too much into the results … but, recently they seem to be coming together as a team capable of doing things they seemed to be unable to do last year. This is particularly encouraging as they seem to be getting better as the month wears on and we see more of the regulars and fewer sure-bet minor leaguers on the field in the blue-and-white.

The pitching’s been decent when it counts. Chris Bassitt and Jose Berrios are both looking good, and going past 5 innings and 60 pitches in recent outings. Kevin Gausman won’t be ready to pitch opening day, but probably will be somewhere in the mix the second time through the rotation, which is much better than it could have been when he missed a couple of games with a sore elbow. And while Alek Manoah isn’t going to be ready for the start of the season and is still a huge question mark anyway, for now the rotation doesn’t look too worrisome (despite the glaring lack of additions this off-season which still seems a ridiculous oversight) thanks to Bowden Francis who by now seems to be inked in, not pencilled, as the #5 starter. He was good in his brief stint in the bullpen last season, but this year is turning heads with his composure as a starter, posting a 1.93 ERA and only two walks through his first four games.

The real plus though, the source of encouragement, is the hitting. Suddenly this is a team that puts big numbers up on the board. Through their first 24 Spring games, they’ve scored 144 runs – a very good 6 per game. But, in the past ten games, that’s been 73 runs, and they’ve scored fewer than 5 only once! That doesn’t align with anyone’s predictions based on seeing them last season, where if they fell down by two runs by the fifth, they were done. Maybe it’s having Don Mattingly as an “offensive co-ordinator” (whatever that means) and Matt Hague – the former AAA hitting coach who did wonders with the likes of Vladdy and Biggio in the minors – up as an assistant, or maybe it’s just a different attitude. But whatever it is, these guys are hitting and seem able to come back from a big deficit quite regularly.

In particular, it’s looking good to see the turnarounds for the guys who significantly under-achieved last season at the plate – Springer, Guerrero, Kirk, Varsho in particular. George Springer is hitting .357 with 3 HR and a .714 slugging pct. in his 11 games. Vladdy is hitting the ball hard, as always but this year they’re dropping in, to the effect of a .444 average, 1.186 OPS and 9 RBI in 10 games. Catcher Alejandro Kirk, destined to do the bulk of the work behind the plate in April due to yet another hand injury to Danny Jansen, is clipping .379 with 3 HR and 7 RBI in 10 games. And Daulton Varsho, who was great with the glove but awful at the plate last season? A .364 average so far, with 8 walks taken Last year he took 45 in 158 games. Put another way, he was walking once per 14 appearances last year; this spring once every five. That’s a much better eye for balls and strikes dude! And though he hasn’t yet hit a home run, which is surprising, he’s on base and thinking himself the new Rickie Henderson, stealing six bases so far. The Jays have good speed, they just tended to stay away from showing it last year. Perhaps it will be different this season.

Add in usually light-hitting infielder Isiah Kiner- Falefa (.321 so far) and Nathan Lukes, likely the fourth outfielder, and his .394 average, .978 OPS and you start to think, this team will not get blanked much in 2024.

And the cherry on top – yes, we have to admit it. Joey Votto hits a home run in his first plate appearance in a Toronto jersey. I still don’t see where Votto is likely to fit into the roster, with VG a fixture at first and Justin Turner signed to back him up and be the regular DH, but Joey’s attitude has been refreshing since arriving, agreeing to the possibility of playing in the minors and saying his new dream is to finish his career with a walk-off homer in the World Series to bring Toronto their third championship. Hey… weirder things have happened!

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One more thing for the city and the team’s fans to feel good about today. MLB did a poll of over 100 active players around the game. Asked for their favorite city to visit on the road, 416-town, on the shores of lovely Lake Ontario, ranked third out of 28 cities (Chicago and New York each have two teams, hence the number of cities; despite the names though Los Angeles and “Los Angeles” Anaheim were considered separate) . OK, they like San Diego and Chicago better than Toronto, but think about it – ballplayers like going to Toronto – in a “foreign” country – more than they do New York. Or L.A. Or Miami. Or Seattle. Etc, etc. That’s nice to hear, a real thumbs up to a city which for its flaws is still certainly one of the nicest and friendliest big cities on the continent. It also shows that players are aware of the city and its charms… which can only bode well in free agent efforts.We’ve heard a few players in the past say they didn’t sign with the Jays because they (or their wives) didn’t want to cross borders, or else had dumb ideas about everyone speaking French and getting around on dogsleds in the Great White North. Seems the reality is being noticed.

No Worries, We Just Like To Make Sure Our MRI Doesn’t Get Dusty

Is it me or is this quickly beginning to look like a lost season for Toronto, thanks to the inactivity of Ross Atkins this past winter? Now, it’s valid to point out that it doesn’t pay to put too much into the first few games of Spring Training. Many of the players on the field on a given day aren’t going to be in the big league squad come April, and some of the regulars are trying a few new things – a new pitch here, new batting stance there – to evaluate if it will help or not. So, on one level, that as of this morning the Jays are 2-7, worst in the Grapefruit League, isn’t of huge concern. Even though the two best teams in that “league” so far have been Baltimore (9-1 and obviously, last year’s division winner in our AL East) and Boston (7-2). Nor should we be burning our caps yet just because the team’s run differential, at -19, is second worst among the 15 teams playing currently in Florida. But there are a couple of things that do seem of some concern.

First, they still seem to be having a lot of difficulty scoring enough runs; can’t put together the string of at bats to pull off a big inning. Of course, the lack of hitting was what really sank them in 2023. No one slotted in to play Second Base or Third this spring so far looks like they want to take the job and run with it… Cavan Biggio, Davis Schneider, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Eduardo Escobar… all have had a good at bat or two but none have seemed like they’re going to be anything more than a merely passable major leaguer this season. Not what you want on a team contending for a championship supposedly. And it’s difficult to suggest that this was totally unforeseeable. While the likes of Matt Chapman, Brandon Belt and Whit Merrifield left an already so-so at best lineup of hitters, all the team did to fortify was bring in DH Justin Turner. A good player to add, but hardly a replacement for the three.

But worse, we have the pitching. Now, while most of the “regulars”, starters and relievers sure of a spot on the roster, have looked good, But there are two striking caveats to that – Alek Manoah and now, Kevin Gausman.

Manoah was flat out bad in his Spring debut this year, going 1 1/3 innings, throwing more balls than strikes, hitting three batters (a Manoah trademark sure to come back and bite Toronto batters in the butt … or face when opponents tire of it and retaliate), and gave up four runs. Of course, he said the predictable things about feeling great and the team beamed with pride over his velocity being up about 1 MPH from last year but any thinking fan who saw him struggle last year would have difficulty taking anything positive out of it. The kicker, as we know, was this past Saturday, when manager John Schneider unprompted, started a news conference by telling the media Manoah “didn’t really bounce back the way he wanted” after the game and has a “cranky shoulder” but reassuring everyone an MRI shows “no structural damage.” He hasn’t pitched since and his next outing is undetermined.

Today the team piled on more bad news, saying the staff ace, Gausman won’t throw in the bullpen as scheduled because of “general fatigue in his throwing shoulder” but, you guessed it an MRI shows “no structural concerns and no injury.” Many, including me, had wondered why he hadn’t started a Spring game yet this year but the team, as of yesterday had claimed it was his preference to get a few simulated games in before taking the mound against real opponents… and who’s going to argue with the guy who finished in the top 3 of Cy Young voting and led the league in strikeouts last year. Today it seems a lot more suspicious of an answer from them.

The Manoah news made me think, flat out “Someone’s lying here”, but I wasn’t sure who. Was Manoah fine and just claiming to be in pain to explain his bad outing and perhaps pre-emptively explain future poor showings? Was the team looking for a ready excuse to prevent a debacle like last year’s when he refused to report to Buffalo after being demoted to the minors? Or was he really seriously injured and they don’t want to discourage fans or make themselves seem too desperate if entering the trade market? That was my thought on the weekend; today with the Gausman news, I tend to think the latter. They’re setting us up for troubling years from both, leaving the team with three real MLB-caliber starters in Berrios, Bassitt and Kikuchi, a few minor leaguers with either flashes of brilliance but limited durability (Bowden Francis, for instance), guys who’ve failed in the past but still potentially show promise (Mitch White) or the Golden Boy, the top prospect, Ricky Tiedemann, who has a very high ceiling but is also going to be on a major innings restriction this year due to his past injuries and limited use last year (15 starts but only 44 innings through the season and only 122 minor league innings in total since being drafted).

Of course, I could be pessimistically wrong. I hope so. But how often do teams publicly announce a player is tired or a bit sore, when nothing at all is really wrong?

This is why I’ve been saying since they walked off the field for the final time last year that they needed to acquire at least one more above-average, #2 or #3 caliber starting pitcher and a couple more budget-friendly guys who could take the mound without embarrassing themselves if needed for a month or so. Ross Atkins chose to do nothing at all to improve the pitching, except sign one completely unproven Cuban pitcher who took last year off and is expected to start the year in Buffalo’s bullpen; while letting Hyun Jin Ryu leave for Asia again. Another big failure from the current brain trust.

If he has any sense, or any real hope of having a playoff team in 2024, he’d better be on the phone right now to agent Scott Boras, asking “how much does Jordan Montgomery want? Take that number and I will double it if he is in Dunedin tomorrow” and then phoning his old employers in Cleveland to find out how many prospects he’d have to dump on them to get Shane Bieber. But I know enough not to be holding my breath…

A Win Is A Win? And, Anyone Fishin’ For Trout?

Well the game scores might be meaningless this month, but at least there are MLB games being played again! Yay! Toronto’s 14-13 loss in the opener of Spring Training doesn’t concern me one bit – in fact, Daulton Varsho having three hits and three RBIs is promising and Danny Jansen being healthy, having a double, a walk and two runs is encouraging too and points to what he could do if he could keep from having his hands hit when he’s behind the plate and other freakish injuries that keep him out of the lineup. And, Nate Pearson giving up four runs and hard-throwing but wild Yosver Zuleta giving up six in less than an inning were useful hints that they are still not ready to go north with the Big Team yet. In February, you can get as much out of a loss as a win.

We’ll look at our season predictions before long, but first a couple of random thoughts:

  1. Chris Bassitt led the Blue Jays last year with 16 wins. In fact, he tied Zac Elfin of Tampa, for the American League lead in that category. You probably missed that and certainly Cy Young voters did. In the NL, arrogant Spencer Strider of Atlanta was the game’s only 20 game winner in 2023. Compare that to 2003 when the great Roy Halladay of the Jays led the majors with 22 wins, there were four more 21 game winners and winning even 17 would only put you in the top dozen.

Among active pitchers, Justin Verlander has the most career wins. No surprise there. He’s collected 257, and will likely add to that this year. But at age 41 and with him finally showing some signs of age catching up to him, it’s not likely he’ll zoom too much higher in that category before hanging them up… and he’s only 41st  best in MLB history, chasing the likes of Gus Weyhring. 39 year-old and oft-injured Max Scherzer and 36 year-old oft-injured Clayton Kershaw are the only other active pitchers north of 200. It’ll be a long time before we see someone rival Randy Johnson’s 303, or Tom Glavine’s 305, let alone Greg Maddux’s 355…  and he was still over 150 shy of Cy Young himself. No wonder Cy Young voters now don’t look much at “wins” in their voting and fewer baseball statheads mention it. Yet I think they should… but a suggestion first-

Obviously, there’s a winning pitcher in every 15-14 game, and a losing one in every 1-0 one. So a “win” isn’t automatically representative of a great performance. But still, at the end of the day, a win is what the team wants and what leads to championships. A pitcher “win” should matter. I think back to Toronto’s first 20-game winner – Jack Morris in 1992. He had a 4.04 ERA that season – almost exactly the league average. Yet he won, and he won because (as we saw his makeup the previous year in the final game of the World Series) Morris wanted to win. If the opposition were good and shutting down his teammates at the plate, bad-tempered Jack would turn it up a notch. Concentrate more, challenge more, and do what it took. On the other hand, if his team spotted him a six, seven run lead, he’d relax, pitch faster, throw more hittable pitches and try to get off the field quicker. He wasn’t going to worry about his ERA if he gave up a solo homer in the 8th when the team was leading 8-2. He also threw 240 innings that regular season, a typical number for a top starter then, but almost inconceivable these days.

The reason today’s starting pitchers get fewer wins is obvious – they throw fewer innings. I don’t like that, but it is the way of the sport. Many figure that if they go five innings, they shouldn’t be asked for anything more and many managers now agree with them. Since to get a “win” the starter has to pitch a minimum of 5 innings, leave with the lead and the lead must stay straight through to the end of the game, without changing hands, fewer and fewer starting pitchers qualify. More relief pitchers get a “win” for just one inning of work, it seems, or worse the veritable negative of a win, the “blown save” win. No stat is more meaningless in the game than a “closer” getting marked with a “W” for a performance when he enters with the lead in the 9th, gives up runs to let the opponents take over the lead and have his team scramble back to pull it out. The team wins, but how can we say that relief pitcher deserves the credit?

So, may I suggest to Rob Manfred, the definition of a pitcher win be changed to – any starting pitcher who goes 5 (or more) and leaves with a lead and has his team eventually win, or a starter who goes at least 3 innings and leaves with a lead which is reflected in the final score if no relief pitcher pitched that many innings or more after him. The result would be more wins in the starting pitchers columns, fewer given to relievers who – let’s say it, may have sucked on that given day – and a stat that means something again.

2) On a different topic, let the predictions begin! And I’m going to start with a big one that seemed implausible not long ago- Mike Trout will be traded by the end of the season! Lots would point towards that not happening. He’s, to be honest let’s admit, declining in his skills, injured a lot and is thus overpaid. He’s got seven more years on his contract with the L.A. Angels, at over $37M per season. He’s thus due $260M more before his contract expires, when he’ll be a weary 38.

It’s often pointed out, he’s missed over half the games in the past three seasons due to injury. Last year he played 82 (out of 162). And even his real fans could no longer suggest he was the game’s greatest player last year, with him hitting ..263, with 18 HR, a .490 slugging percentage and just 2 stolen bases. Now those are not bad numbers for a half season. Generally a bit better than the average outfielders’. But his average, on base percentage and other key numbers were the lowest he’s posted since his abbreviated debut in 2011. His .858 OPS was more than 80 points lower than his previous worst.

So it would seem highly unlikely any other team would want him, given that contract. Plus, the Angels haven’t publicly tried to trade him before, when his trade value would have been high, and Trout has been (perplexingly?) loyal to staying with Anaheim despite only playing in three post-season games, and they being back in 2014. The Angels last year were 73-89, 4th in the AL West and few could seriously suggest that adding relief pitcher Adam Cimber or Adam Kolarek overshadow the loss of the game’s real marquee player right now, Shohei Ohtani. What’s more, Ohtani signing with the crosstown rival Dodgers really showed up the Angels and owner Arte Moreno, who seemingly weren’t really even trying to keep him around. That would have to be disheartening to a guy who wanted to win, which we’re led to believe Trout does.

Yet his public demeanor seems unchanged. “”Right now the easy way out would be asking for a trade (but) I’m loyal and want to win a championship here!”  he’s said to reporters this winter. Unchanged – or is it? He this spring added in “”down the road if something changes” and “there might be a time” when he would ask for that trade. It’s also rumored he’s campaigned heavily with Moreno to get more high-quality free agents signed, which no doubt resulted in Moreno saying “sssh! I’m on the phone to Gio Urshela right now!” Trout  notes “it’s Arte’s decision, but I’m going to put my two cents in”. Does that really sound like someone 100% determined to stay on a clearly sinking ship?

Getting another team to take the seemingly made-of-glass former superstar off L.A.’s hands is another matter. But here’s my take – we continue to see some big, dumb-seeming free agent signings year in, year out, and some teams will throw around money like those proverbial drunken sailors in order to win. And his former teammate, Ohtani, showed a whole new way of going about contracts, with so much of his $700M being deferred to later. If Trout starts off 2024 half decently, matching his 2023 pace at least, and doesn’t injure himself before the All Star game, and Angels freefall as most expect, he’ll decide the something has changed and be asking for a trade. Quietly and behind closed doors to begin with but maybe more openly if that doesn’t get him into Dodger blue, or Braves blue, or Blue Jays blue or Yankees blue-that-looks-like-black or some other competitive team quickly. And one of those teams will take that chance as long as the Angels eat some of the salary, and Trout agrees to defer some of the remainder. I could imagine a deal where the new team and L.A. split his remaining money (making him cost about $18.5 per season to the new team) and  he maybe defers a third of that until he retires. They in return would probably still give a decent, but not mega-sized, payback in players to the Angels – maybe a decent Major League outfielder and three or four decent prospects.

What do you think – is Trout an Angel for life, one for awhile longer or fitting on a different cap to see how it looks as we speak?

Justin Turner’s Turn In Toronto Comes Just In Time

Finally something for us Blue Jays fans to talk about besides how loud the sound of the crickets emanating from the front office were lately… and I’m not talking about Vladdy being honored by MLB who have him as the “cover boy” for the league-sponsored video game The Show this year. Although that’s kind of cool too. Nor am I talking about the apparent signing of Cuban pitcher Yariel Rodriguez (who hasn’t officially been announced as signed by the club but is reported such far and wide) two weeks ago. Rodriguez is a real wild card, an unknown, who has shown in international competition he has talent but didn’t pitch anywhere during the regular season last year and hasn’t faced an MLB lineup. He could end up anywhere from the bullpen in Buffalo to being a legitimate, decent member of the big club’s starting rotation come April. No, I’m referring to the bringing on board veteran third baseman Justin Turner on a one-year contract today. And I say “excellent”… but also, “next move?”

Turner has, according to the MLB website, signed with Toronto for about $14M, more than he made last year in Boston but well below his $20M per season he was making during his final years in L.A. He was one of the few remaining legitimate batters remaining on the free agent market who might make a difference in a lineup like Toronto’s, which we saw last season, definitely needs more “pop”.

The downside to Turner is that he’s 39 years old. He’ll be the oldest Jay on the dugout bench and closer in age to manager John Schneider (44 next month) than most of his teammates. His range at Third Base, traditionally his position is diminishing and it might seem as if Toronto signed him to essentially replace Brandon Belt more than Gold Glove third bagger Matt Chapman. Indeed, last year in Boston (his first away from the Dodgers since 2013), he only started seven games at Third, compared to 35 at First and 98 as their DH. Mind you, Boston has star Third Baseman Rafael Devers so his path to the third bag was a bit blocked, but the writing on the wall seems there – Turner’s not going to be an everyday guy at the “hot corner” anymore… something emphasized by his 3 errors in a mere 19 chances there last year.

But all that is outweighed by his upside. He hits and hits well. And consistently. His batting average from 2021-23 : .278/.278/.276. Slugging in those years : .471/.438/.455. Last year he hit 23 homers and a career best 96 RBI, thanks in no small part to his .350 average with runners on base. That’s clutch hitting. What’s more, Turner brings some good experience and a winning attitude with him. He was a member of the 2020 World Championship L.A. team (as well as the 2017 team that fell short) going 8-for-25 with two home runs in that series. Ironically, the ’17 team lost to Houston, of whom his new teammate, George Springer, was a part of.

Turner’s a good acquisition and his age seems little impediment to his performance at the plate. He should more than make up for Belt’s departure – Belt hit a decent enough .254 with a .490 slugging percentage and 19 homers last season.

But… the question then is who replaces Whit Merrifield? Who replaces Chapman? Both of those guys cooled off during the season last year, but still… Merrifield played 145 games, starting 67 at Second Base and 66 in Left field, hit .272 with 27 doubles and a team-leading 26 stolen bases. Chapman ended up with a .755 OPS, despite hitting barely .200 after April ( a month in which he was league player of the month) but had a great 1.6 defensive WAR and a better-than-league average .968 fielding pct. at Third. He was still deemed good enough there to win his fourth Gold Glove.

Now, presumably Isiah Kiner-Falefa is supposed to replace one of them. Falefa is versatile like Merrifield (last season, 26 games at third, 61 started in the outfield) and had a rather neutral .963 fielding percentage at that base. But his bat (.242,.646 OPS) was far from head-turning. He could be a slight downgrade over Merrifield as a versatile utility man, or a big drop-off from Chapman as the everyday third baseman.

Bottom line – I like the signing. But, consider that with Belt, Merrifield, Chapman and pitcher Hyun Jin Ryu coming off the payroll and only Falefa and Turner added in to the major league roster so far, the team is saving about $33 million compared to last year’s payroll. And remember, allegedly they were willing to go shoulder to shoulder in budding with the Dodgers for Shohei Ohtani… who took in $70 million per. So, clearly Toronto could add more payroll. And agreed, they have some good infield prospects like Addison Barger and Orelvis Martinez ready (or close to) to make the jump to the “show” but rookie infielders are never a sure bet to produce as expected. The Jays need one more good bat for the lineup, through trade or free agency (and workable free agents who would fit the role are increasingly scarce) and while we’re at it, I’ll say it again… more pitching!

So good job Ross Atkins. Now back to that phone, and let’s get the roster ready. Sixteen days til the official Spring Training gates swing open!